Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Egypt
  • Morocco
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Mauritania
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Zambia
  • Malawi

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $661,936$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{658,651.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(658,651.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,992$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(583 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,349.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,349.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,736$ on 2020-09-21

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,281$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,967.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 154.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,967.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $555$ on 2020-09-21

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,796$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,325.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 178.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,325.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $450$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 183.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,153.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,962$ on 2020-09-21

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,404$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,303.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(15.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-09-21

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,002$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(498 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,442.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 111.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,442.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(13.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 76.1)}}\) (asimptote \(87.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $410$ on 2020-09-21

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $102,141$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,332.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,332.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,787$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,683.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,683.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,022$ on 2020-09-21

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,119$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(775 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,855$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(14.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,106$ on 2020-09-21

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,519$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,178.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,178.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $271$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(273.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $296$ on 2020-09-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Mauritania recovered 92%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 91%
Zambia recovered 90%
Egypt recovered 89%
Malawi recovered 35%
Senegal recovered 33%
Rwanda recovered 19%

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,384$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(822 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,965.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 91.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,965.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157.6}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 77.1)}}\) (asimptote \(157.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $246$ on 2020-09-21

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,327$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,022.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(19,022.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(21.4 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $577$ on 2020-09-21

Zambia⮸

Population $18,383,955$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,175$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(299 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,700.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 136.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,700.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $331$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(11.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 112.3)}}\) (asimptote \(320.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $215$ on 2020-09-21

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,733$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(509 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,844.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 89.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,844.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $179$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(8.37 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.5)}}\) (asimptote \(178.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,501$ on 2020-09-21