Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $661,936$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{658,651.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(658,651.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,992$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(583 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,349.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,349.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,736$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,281$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,967.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 154.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,967.5\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $52$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.1\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $555$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,796$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,325.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 178.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,325.0\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $450$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 183.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,153.1\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,962$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,404$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,303.5\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(15.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,002$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(498 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,442.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 111.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,442.4\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(13.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 76.1)}}\) (asimptote \(87.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $410$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $102,141$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,332.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,332.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,787$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,683.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,683.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,022$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,119$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(775 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,855$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(14.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,106$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,519$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,178.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,178.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $271$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(273.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $296$ on 2020-09-21